A message to Barcelona and Arsenal – finish second and more Champions League misery awaits
Given that all eight group winners won their last-16 ties in 2013-14, matchday six presents a huge opportunity for PSG, Juventus, Atletico, Dortmund and othersArsenal and Barcelona may have already qualified for the Champions League knockout phase but, for them and others, matchday six could still be their most important game so far this season.
In 2012-13, six of the eight quarter-finalists had won their groups. Last term, all eight group winners were victorious in their last-16 encounters, as three ties finished with an aggregate deficit of more than four goals. Topping the group has never been more crucial.
With one game to play, Barcelona sit second in Group F, a point behind their Wednesday opponents Paris Saint-Germain. Only victory at Camp Nou will see them leapfrog the French champions into first. The same is true for Arsenal, who must beat Galatasaray and hope Borussia Dortmund fail to win against Anderlecht - with the Belgians already assured of third place and a Europa League spot.
In Group A, Juventus play hosts to current leaders Atletico Madrid, needing to win by two clear goals in order to edge ahead of last season's finalists on head-to-head record. And in Group C, the most open of all eight pools this term, only victory away to Benfica will guarantee top spot for Bayer Leverkusen ahead of Monaco and Zenit, who face a straight qualification shootout at Stade Louis II.
Champions League
Pos Logo &Team P W D L GD Pts 1 Atlético de Madrid
5 4 0 1 11 12 2 Juventus
5 3 0 2 3 9 3 Olympiakos
5 2 0 3 -5 6 4 Malmö FF
5 1 0 4 -9 3
The permutations sound complex but, for those involved, the objective is simple: fight tooth and nail to win the group. It is likely to make all the difference come February.
"It is always better to finish first," Arsene Wenger said last month. "In some way, you feel guilty if you don't finish first. People certainly think: 'OK, if you are punished [with the draw] then you deserve it because they finished second.'"
In the past four seasons Arsenal have qualified second from their group. They were rewarded with ties against Barcelona, AC Milan and Bayern Munich (twice). They lost every tie.
"It's very important [to finish top] because you can play against teams that aren't Barcelona or Real Madrid when you finish first," was Santi Cazorla's forthright assessment. If they don't top the group, Arsenal could face one of Spain's top three, plus the champions of Germany, Italy and France.
Wenger has complained bitterly in the past of being dealt the shortest of all straws in the last-16 draw but he is as culpable as anyone for Arsenal's fortunes. Defeat on the final matchday last season to Napoli only just spared them from exiting the tournament entirely, but it still effectively ended their European campaign: group-winners Dortmund drew Zenit, a side who limped through the group phase with just one win, while the Gunners were paired with Bayern. "Arsenal will have no chance," former Germany international Paul Breitner predicted to Goal. They didn't and were comfortably beaten.
What makes it more galling for the Arsenal faithful was that previous warnings had been ignored. Having assured qualification in 2012 ahead of matchday six, Wenger fielded a weakened side for the trip to Olympiacos that included Carl Jenkinson, Sebastian Squillaci, Francis Coquelin, Marouane Chamakh and a first-ever start for Jernade Meade at left-back. A 2-0 win for the Greeks sent Arsenal through in second; eventual winners Bayern were waiting for them. Meade, incidentally, spent the end of the 2013-14 season on loan at Luton Town from parent club Swansea, without playing a game.
Barca and PSG have just as much at stake. Having lost 3-2 in Paris, only a win will be enough to see Luis Enrique's men top the group - something they haven't failed to do since 2006-07. But PSG's intentions are clear. In 2012, they sent a full-strength side to face Porto in the final group game, despite having already qualified, in order to ensure they played Valencia in the next round rather than Bayern. There was even talk of resting Zlatan Ibrahimovic this weekend to keep him fresh for a grudge match against his old club, despite them scrapping with Marseille in the title race at home.
"We will fight for first position at Barcelona. It's very important to finish top because it leaves you in a better position for the future," said David Luiz, while compatriot Thiago Silva described it as "a special game". If it sounds grandiose, consider PSG could face holders Real Madrid, Spanish champions Atletico, Pep Guardiola's Bayern or Jose Mourinho's Chelsea if they lose. Barca get off more lightly as they cannot yet draw another Spanish side, but the prospect of facing the league leaders in Germany or England will not appeal. Win, and Basel could be waiting.
For Atleti, the current standings suggest a more comfortable final day: avoid defeat by two clear goals and they win the group. Diego Simeone, however, will want to assure top spot - especially given last season's favourable draw against a torrid Milan side. And while Juventus fans may argue they should just be happy to go through after last season's capitulation in the snow of Istanbul, Massimiliano Allegri is certainly not content with second, either.
"I have good feelings for Tuesday," Allegri said. "We must try to win 2-0 to finish first in the group." The last time they did so, they avoided Barcelona and put five goals past Celtic in the last 16.
Even Bayer Leverkusen, despite emerging from a hotly-contested group, will have little interest in surrendering top spot to Monaco or Zenit. Having placed behind Manchester United last term, they were tasked with stopping PSG in the last 16, and fell woefully short.
There are exceptions, of course - Real Madrid reached the semi-finals in 2012-13 despite finishing second - but the pattern of group winners enjoying better Champions League campaigns is becoming increasingly clear. Part of this is due to a growing disparity between the elite sides of Europe and the cannon fodder emerging from the play-offs.
In 2011, the average gap between first and third after six games was 4.5 points. Last season, this jumped to 6.4 points, even taking into account a group where the top three finished on level points. Three teams completed the round unbeaten. After five matches in 2014-15, the average points gap stands at 7.4, while four sides have not yet lost a game. The gap is growing.
Bayern, Porto, Real Madrid and Chelsea boast the luxury of having already won their groups; for others, matchday six represents a decisive moment in their Champions League campaigns. If they fail to grasp it, then there will be plenty of guilty looks come the draw on December 15.
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